We’re up to the last game of the 2013 season already. I know I’ve been a little lax in updating the site lately but had some time this weekend to get it ready for the big game of the playoffs.
personally I’m a Giants fan, but living in Denver my children and wife are full Bronco fans loving the fact that they get to represent the AFC this year (Wife already bought an AFC championship Broncos shirt yesterday). I often call Denver my “Mistress” team (if the Giants were my “Wife team) because I have always liked watching them going back to the playing days of John Elway.
For this game against Seattle I simulated 10k games of likely game stats, then ran those through a linear regression model that predicts game scores. I then plotted the scores to an overlapping histogram so you can see the most scores for each team at the same time.
As you can see the scores line up rather close. Not a surprise in my opinion as these two teams are closely matched (Vegas odds will tell you the same thing, ~3 points for Denver). It does look like Denver has an average advantage (about 2.5 points) but for a post season game that’s not enough to predict a win (See below last year’s Championship between SF and BAL). There are plenty of scenarios where Seattle will outscore Denver (Chart overlap) but definitely more where Denver should outscore Seattle.
Looking at the same simulation model Continue reading
Week 11 is here and Jacksonville is on longer winless (I picked their win last week). Nobody saw a few of the upsets but I did well overall (8-5-1 against the point spread). This week look for Jacksonville to get their second win versus Arizona, New England to destroy Carolina in Carolina, Denver to roll over Kansas City, and Pittsburgh to get a win over Detroit. You can view all the picks in the forums.
Week 10 picks are in. Look for Carolina to go into San Francisco and get a win. Pittsburgh to bounce back against buffalo, and Atlanta to beat Seattle. You can read all the picks in the forums.
Week 9 picks are in! You can see them in the forums here.
Narrowly beat the spread last week (8-7). This week look for Arizona to beat Atlanta in Phoenix, The Jets to pull off an upset in Cincinnati, and Jacksonville to lose but clear the spread against San Francisco.
This Weeks Winner Picks in Order of Confidence:
MIA at NE -7 [Winner Pick: NE 82%]
WAS at DEN -13 [Winner Pick: DEN 73%]
BUF at NO -12 [Winner Pick: NO 73%]
GB at MIN +9.5 [Winner Pick: GB 62%]
SEA at STL +10.5 [Winner Pick: SEA 62%]
NYG at PHI -6.5 [Winner Pick: PHI 60%]
PIT at OAK +3 [Winner Pick: PIT 59%]
ATL at ARI -2.5 [Winner Pick: ARI 56%]
SF at JAX +16.5 [Winner Pick: SF 55%]
NYJ at CIN -6.5 [Winner Pick: NYJ 52%]
This Weeks Picks to beat the Spread in Order of Confidence:
NYJ at CIN -6.5 [Point Spread Pick: NYJ to beat spread by 6.3 points]
SF at JAX +16.5 [Point Spread Pick: JAX to beat spread by 6 points]
MIA at NE -7 [Point Spread Pick: NE to beat spread by 3.2 points]
PIT at OAK +3 [Point Spread Pick: PIT to beat spread by 2.5 points]
NYG at PHI -6.5 [Point Spread Pick: NYG to beat spread by 2.3 points]
GB at MIN +9.5 [Point Spread Pick: GB to beat spread by 1.5 points]
SEA at STL +10.5 [Point Spread Pick: SEA to beat spread by 1.4 points]
WAS at DEN -13 [Point Spread Pick: WAS to beat spread by 1.3 points]
BUF at NO -12 [Point Spread Pick: BUF to beat spread by 0.3 points]
ATL at ARI -2.5 [Point Spread Pick: ARI to beat spread by 0.2 points]
You can join the discussion on the forum post here
10-5 against the spread last week helps lift me to 52-36-4 for the season! This week look for the Eagles to knock off the Cowboys, Jacksonville and the Giants to get their first win, and the Texans to bounce back against the Chiefs (in KC! It should be close). Week 7 picks are in the forums.
2013 picks so far: 42-31-4 against the spread, 54-23 picking game winners so far.
Last week (week 5) was filled with many great match ups. This week has the most lopsided point spread in NFL history (JAX at DEN -26.5). Look for IND to go into SD and get a win & PIT to get their first win of the season. Week 6 picks are in the forums.
Week 5 picks are in from the model. The model likes Packers over the Lions to win and beat the spread. Lots of close games this week should take out many of the survivor/loser players. Check out all the picks in the forums.
My week 4 picks are in. My upset pick of the week is the Patriots over Atlanta (@ATL) and the Bears over the Lions (@DET). I have the Broncos, Vikings, and Bucs clearing the point spread easy this week. You can look at the picks in the forum.
I’m not sure what goes into the ESPN power rankings, but from reading their articles I suspect it is based on analyst ranking that is polled and summarized. They then probably write positive/negative comments in line with team movement in the rankings.